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| 2026-10-01 | |||||||||
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Welcome back to the MSI monthly newsletter! In this edition, the focus will be about why the Fed raised interest rates again.
The month that was: September was a split month. The Nasdaq went up by about 1.9%, but the S&P 500 went down by about 0.3%, the Dow went down by about 4.1%, and small companies fell about 5.3%. Technology was the only sector that went up, helped by AI companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Apple. Oil went back above $100 a barrel as the fighting with Iran continued. On September 16th, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point, to between 3.75% and 4%. It was the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. Fed Chair Warsh said that the Fed's main focus is now on bringing prices back under control. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to one of its highest levels in decades. Just last year, the Fed was cutting interest rates. Why did it change direction? In my newsletters in 2023, I explained how the Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation, and in 2024 and 2025 I explained why it started cutting rates once inflation came down. But this year, the war with Iran pushed oil prices above $100, and inflation went back up from below 3% to around 4% at one point. At the same time, the economy has stayed fairly strong. When inflation goes up and the economy can handle it, the Fed raises rates to slow down spending and bring prices back down. Higher interest rates hurt some companies more than others. Small companies, banks that are worried about loans going bad, real estate companies, and companies tied to housing were hit the hardest this month. Big tech companies with lots of cash, on the other hand, held up much better. This is one of the reasons I have been trimming companies tied to housing and keeping my steadier companies. Sells - Sold 16 DG at $120.50 I bought Dollar General in February 2025 for about $72, when it was near its lowest price in years. Since then, its turnaround has worked, and the stock has gone up a lot. I sold all of my shares for a profit of about 67%. This is one of my favorite examples of buying a good company while it is out of favor and waiting patiently. Sold 7 DLTR at $112.88 I also sold my Dollar Tree shares, which I bought during the tariff crash in April 2025, for a profit of about 54%. Sold 1 MU at $1080.04 I trimmed one more share of Micron, for a profit of more than 1,300%. Sold 6 PLTR at $171.69 I sold the rest of the Palantir shares I bought in August, for a profit of about 37%. Sold 9 INTU at $327.00 Sold 3 TYL at $344.52 Sold 9 WCN at $161.14 I sold some Intuit, Tyler Technologies, and Waste Connections shares for small profits. Sold 1 SNPS at $393.85 Sold 1 BLDR at $58.30 Sold 66 ADBU at $24.36 I also sold one share of Synopsys and my last share of Builders FirstSource for losses, and sold my leveraged Adobe ETF for a tiny profit. Buys - Bought 12 SYK at $278.38 I added a lot more Stryker. Its stock has fallen this year, but people will always need knee and hip replacements, especially as more people get older. Bought 40 RKLB at $67.65 I added more Rocket Lab after the price came down. Bought 15 SUNB at $73.56 Sunbelt Rentals rents out construction equipment, like lifts and generators. Its parent company recently moved its main stock listing to the U.S. I started a new position. Bought 7 CAVA at $51.57 Bought 2 WSO at $308.67 Bought 1 CBOE at $271.86 I bought back some CAVA at about half the price I paid in February 2025, and added to Watsco and Cboe. Bought 700 ADBG at $4.24 ADBG is another leveraged ETF that moves twice as much as Adobe. I bought it hoping that Adobe would bounce after its earnings report. Buys and Sells - Bought 11 CASY at $610.07 Sold 6 CASY at $588.45 On September 8th, Casey's reported earnings that beat expectations, but its same-store sales growth slowed down, and the stock fell about 10%. I sold six shares, most of which I bought in June near the stock's high, for a loss of about 18%, and I bought more at the new lower price. Bought 27 ONON at $27.75 Sold 49 ONON at $27.32 On Holding kept falling after its earnings report in August. I sold more shares at the start of the month for a loss, and bought a few back later in the month. Note: There will be no issue next month since I am busy with college applications. Thanks for reading my newsletter! |
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