|
|
| Home | Portfolio | Watch List | Newsletter | About | Contact Me | Stock Advisor |
The month that was:
April was the best month for the stock market since November 2020. The Nasdaq went up by about 15%, the S&P 500 went up by about 10.5%, and the Dow went up by about 7%. Small companies did well too, as the Russell 2000 went up about 12%. By the end of the month, the S&P 500 was back at record highs.
On April 7th and 8th, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and later in the month, the ceasefire was extended. Chip stocks led the rally. Intel more than doubled in April, its best month ever, after it signed deals with Tesla and Google and reported much better earnings than expected. AMD went up about 74%. On April 29th, the Fed kept interest rates the same at Jerome Powell's last meeting as Fed chair.
Here is something interesting: the war was not over, the Strait of Hormuz was still mostly closed, oil was still above $100 a barrel, and inflation rose to 3.3% in March, the biggest monthly jump in five years. So why did the stock market have its best month in more than five years?
The answer is that the stock market looks ahead. Stock prices are based on how much money investors think companies will make in the future, not on what is happening today. In March, investors were scared that the war might get much worse and cause a recession. When the ceasefire happened, investors started to believe that the worst was probably behind us, even though things were still difficult. Companies also kept reporting strong profits, especially companies that sell to AI data centers. By the time the news actually gets better, the market has often already gone up. That is why waiting for the "all clear" before investing usually means missing a big part of the recovery.
Buys -
Bought 13 BR at $156.25
Bought 5 ADP at $191.03
Broadridge handles behind-the-scenes work for banks and brokerages, like sending shareholders their voting materials. ADP runs payroll for hundreds of thousands of businesses. Both have raised their dividends for many years, and both fell with other software and services companies this year, so I started new positions.
Bought 17 IGV at $77.99
IGV is an ETF that holds a basket of software companies, like Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, and Adobe. Instead of trying to guess which single software company will win against AI, I bought the whole group. If software stocks recover, I will benefit, and if one company does badly, it won't hurt me too much.
Bought 4 ROP at $351.90
Bought 7 WCN at $156.57
Bought 23 SFM at $70.83
Bought 5 ADBE at $241.41
I bought back some Roper Technologies at a lower price than I sold it for in January, and added more Waste Connections, Sprouts, and Adobe.
Sells -
Sold 15 DECK at $108.22
I bought Deckers back in November at about $88. It has gone up nicely since then, and I sold my shares for a profit of about 23%.
Sold 55 NKE at $44.73
On March 31st, Nike reported weak sales in North America and gave a disappointing forecast, and the stock fell more than 10% the next day. Nike's turnaround is taking much longer than I expected. I sold all of the shares I bought in March for a loss of about 16%.
Sold 14 ONON at $34.65
Sold 2 ISRG at $453.43
Sold 2 SNPS at $412.93
Sold 1 UFPT at $200.00
I sold a few more shares of On Holding for a loss, and some shares of Intuitive Surgical, Synopsys, and UFP Technologies.
Buys and Sells -
Bought 13 MRVL at $109.44
Sold 6 MRVL at $114.53
I sold 6 Marvell shares that I bought during the tariff crash last April for about $56. They more than doubled, a profit of about 104%. I also bought more shares, because Marvell's AI business keeps growing.
Bought 27 NOW at $93.52
Sold 19 NOW at $85.41
I bought more ServiceNow right before its earnings report. On April 22nd, ServiceNow reported subscription sales that disappointed investors, and the stock fell about 18% the next day. I sold some of my shares for a loss of about 11%.
Thanks for reading my newsletter!