|
|
| Home | Portfolio | Watch List | Newsletter | About | Contact Me | Stock Advisor |
The month that was:
December was a quiet month for the overall market. The Dow went up by about 0.7%, the S&P 500 was about flat, and the Nasdaq went down by about 0.5%. On December 10th, the Fed cut interest rates for the third meeting in a row, to between 3.5% and 3.75%. Because of the government shutdown, some economic reports finally came out this month. They showed that inflation was 2.7% in November and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years.
AI stocks had a mixed month. Oracle and Broadcom both fell more than 10% after their earnings reports, as investors kept worrying about how much money is being spent on AI. On the other hand, Micron reported amazing results on December 17th, because AI data centers need so much memory that there is a shortage, and its stock jumped.
Looking back at 2025:
2025 was another strong year, even with the tariff crash in April. The S&P 500 went up about 16%, the Nasdaq went up about 20%, and the Dow went up about 13%. This was the third year in a row that the S&P 500 went up by more than 15%. Micron was one of the best stocks in the S&P 500, going up about 239%. On the other side, Deckers was one of the worst, falling about 49%.
Here are the most important lessons I learned this year:
1. Buying during a panic can pay off. In April, during the tariff crash, I bought Micron, Marvell, AMD, Lam Research, and Microsoft at their lowest prices in more than a year. Those have been some of my best investments.
2. Don't buy right before earnings. I lost money many times this year by buying right before an earnings report, including e.l.f. Beauty, MongoDB, Gartner, Deckers, Chipotle, and Trex. When a report is bad, the stock can fall 15% to 30% in one day.
3. Too much trading hurts. I made many more trades this year than in any year before, especially in October and November, and most of my short-term trades lost money. The investments that made the most money were the ones I held patiently.
4. No stock is completely safe. UnitedHealth, one of the most trusted companies in America, fell about 50% in one month.
Buys -
Bought 14 ADBE at $339.19
Adobe reported better than expected earnings on December 10th. Its stock has fallen a lot this year because of worries about AI, but Adobe's sales and profits are still growing. I added more shares.
Bought 7 AVGO at $340.26
Broadcom makes custom AI chips for companies like Google, as well as networking chips. On December 11th, it reported strong sales, but investors worried that its profit margins would shrink, and the stock fell about 11% the next day. I used the drop to start a new position.
Bought 25 CMG at $37.92
I bought back some Chipotle at a lower price than I sold it for in October.
Bought 15 SFM at $80.59
Sprouts Farmers Market is a grocery store chain focused on healthy and organic food. Its stock fell about 25% in October after it gave a weak forecast. Sprouts is still growing and opening new stores, so I started a new position.
Bought 3 ONON at $46.89
I added a few more shares of On Holding.
Sells -
Sold 7 UFPT at $214.40
Sold 4 ACN at $272.26
Sold 5 CSL at $330.46
I sold some shares of UFP Technologies, Accenture, and Carlisle for profits of about 5% to 12%.
Sold 11 EFX at $212.24
Sold 8 APD at $234.80
I sold some Equifax shares for a small loss, and sold my Air Products shares, one of the early industrial investments I mentioned in my April 2023 newsletter.
Buys and Sells -
Bought 24 ORCL at $217.60
Sold 21 ORCL at $178.53
I bought more Oracle at the start of the month, but on December 10th, Oracle reported earnings and said it would spend even more money on data centers, and the stock fell about 11%. A week later, there was a report that one of its partners had pulled out of funding a big data center, and the stock fell again. I sold most of my shares for a loss of about 18%.
Bought 28 NKE at $66.27
Sold 43 NKE at $58.86
On December 18th, Nike said that its sales in China were still falling and that tariffs were hurting its profits. The stock fell about 10% the next day. I had bought shares right before the report, and I sold all of my shares for a loss of about 8%.
Bought 10 FDS at $295.12
Sold 6 FDS at $272.72
Bought 7 CRM at $236.41
Sold 17 CRM at $238.54
Bought 5 BLDR at $110.92
Sold 14 BLDR at $110.47
Bought 24 TREX at $35.86
Sold 54 TREX at $35.23
Bought 18 BAH at $87.77
Sold 2 BAH at $85.05
Bought 10 CTAS at $187.43
Sold 10 CTAS at $189.10
I also made trades in FactSet, Salesforce, Builders FirstSource, Trex, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Cintas. Most of them ended in small losses. I am keeping some Booz Allen Hamilton and FactSet shares for the long term.
Thanks for reading my newsletter, and Happy New Year!