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The month that was:
March was a tough month. The Nasdaq went down by about 8%, the S&P 500 went down by almost 6%, and the Dow went down by about 4%. On March 13th, the S&P 500 entered a correction, which means it fell more than 10% from its high in February. As I explained in my October 2023 newsletter, a correction is a drop of 10% or more. This one happened in only about three weeks.
The main reason was tariffs. On March 4th, the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect, and the tariff on China was raised to 20%. Canada and China announced tariffs on American goods in return. Later in the month, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, and said that much bigger tariffs on many countries would be announced on April 2nd. On March 19th, the Fed kept interest rates the same, but it predicted that the economy would grow more slowly this year and that inflation would be higher. Gold went above $3,000 an ounce for the first time ever.
This led many investors to worry about something called stagflation. Stagflation is when the economy stops growing, or "stagnates," at the same time that prices keep rising, which is inflation. Stagflation is one of the hardest situations for the Fed. Normally, if the economy is slowing down, the Fed cuts interest rates to help it. And if inflation is high, the Fed raises rates to slow it down. But in stagflation, both problems happen at once, so whatever the Fed does to fix one problem can make the other one worse. The last time the U.S. had serious stagflation was in the 1970s.
Right now, the economy is still growing and unemployment is still low, so we are not in stagflation. But tariffs could make prices go up and slow the economy down at the same time, which is why investors are nervous.
Buys -
Bought 31 SAIC at $102.23
Bought 8 CACI at $340.42
Sold 1 SAIC at $95.21
Sold 4 CACI at $328.32
Even with the worries about government spending cuts, I think SAIC and CACI are solid companies with long-term contracts. I sold a few shares at the start of the month, then built a much bigger position in SAIC at prices close to its lowest in years.
Bought 5 DECK at $123.13
Deckers owns Hoka running shoes and UGG boots. Its stock has fallen about 50% from its high in January because investors worry that Hoka's growth is slowing. Hoka and UGG are still very popular brands, so I started a new position.
Bought 2 ADBE at $449.69
Adobe makes Photoshop and other software used by artists and designers. Adobe was one of the first stocks I wrote about. Its stock has fallen because investors worry that AI tools could compete with its products, but Adobe is adding its own AI features. I added two shares.
Bought 4 AMAT at $153.79
Applied Materials makes the machines that chip companies use to build computer chips. I started a new position.
Bought 3 IBKR at $172.17
Bought 1 IT at $420.83
Bought 1 FDS at $440.63
Bought 4 EFX at $246.59
Sold 1 EFX at $243.15
Interactive Brokers is an online brokerage, and Gartner does research for businesses on technology. I started small positions in both, and added to FactSet and Equifax.
Bought 2 ALSN at $96.05
Sold 2 ALSN at $97.86
Bought 2 MLI at $80.34
Sold 10 MLI at $77.13
I made small trades in Allison Transmission and Mueller Industries.
Sells -
Sold 10 AMD at $97.76
Sold 15 MRVL at $85.64
Sold 8 DDOG at $111.80
Sold 20 GTLB at $57.15
Sold 7 IESC at $166.10
Sold 9 NKE at $77.11
Sold 5 CAVA at $88.23
Sold 4 NVO at $89.60
When the tariffs went into effect on March 3rd and 4th, I sold a lot of stocks, especially tech and growth stocks, because I was worried the market would keep falling. I sold some shares for small profits and others for losses. My biggest losses were IES Holdings, which I sold for a loss of about 21%, and CAVA, which I sold for a loss of about 12%.
Sold 10 HSY at $164.83
Hershey went up after I bought it in February, and I sold my shares for a profit of about 13%.
Buys and Sells -
Bought 10 MDB at $264.34
Sold 13 MDB at $212.53
On March 5th, MongoDB gave a much weaker forecast than expected, and the stock fell about 27% the next day. I had added shares right before the report, and I sold all of my shares for a loss of about 20%. This is the second time this year that buying right before an earnings report has cost me a lot of money.
Bought 50 PFE at $26.50
Sold 25 PFE at $26.07
I bought Pfizer again, and then sold half of my shares a few days later for a small loss.
Thanks for reading my newsletter!