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The month that was:
October was a slightly negative month. The Dow went down by about 1.3%, the S&P 500 went down by about 1%, and the Nasdaq went down by about 0.5%. Before that, the S&P 500 had gone up for five months in a row, and it hit several more record highs during October before falling at the end of the month.
Interest rates also went up during the month, even though the Fed cut rates in September. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.8% to about 4.3%, because the economy stayed strong. The jobs report on October 4th showed that companies added 254,000 jobs in September, much more than expected. Strong data made investors think the Fed might not need to cut rates as quickly.
The presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is on November 5th, and many investors are nervous about it. Elections can make the market more volatile in the short term, because investors don't know which policies will happen. For example, the candidates have very different plans for taxes and tariffs.
But history shows that over the long term, the stock market has gone up under both Republican and Democratic presidents. What matters most for stocks is how much money companies make, and that depends much more on the economy, interest rates, and new technologies than on who is president. That is why I don't make big changes to my portfolio just because of an election.
Buys -
None.
Sells -
None.
I did not make any trades this month. I am waiting to see what happens after the election.
Thanks for reading my newsletter!